Free NBA Betting Predictions March 30
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DAL Mavericks -4.0DAL Mavericks @ CLE Cavaliers
Dallas is in the 4th spot in the Western Conference, but things are tight enough in the standings thay they could move up or down over the last couple of weeks. It is probably not being discussed enough how good a job Jason Kidd is doing in his first year coaching this team. They have got more out of guard Spencer Dinwiddie than most people expected and that has taken some pressure off Luka Doncic. Cleveland won its last game but it came at a cost as top rookie Evan Mobley is questionable for this game. Cleveland is in a dogfight with Chicago and Toronto to stay above the cut line for the play-in tournament in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs defense has not been as sharp as it was early in the season and with center Jarrett Allen already out and Mobley now hurt, it is going to be a lot tougher to win at that end.
It tells you a lot about what is going on with these teams that Dallas is the favorite as the road team, even though they played a home game against the Lakers last night (winning 128-110). Dallas has been decent when playing in back-to-back situations at 6-5 SU and 5-6 ATS this season. The simple trend is that the Mavs have got better as the season has progressed while the Cavs have struggled to sustain their early success. The injuries have just been too plentiful and targeted. Take Dallas.
DEN Nuggets -9.5DEN Nuggets @ IND Pacers
Denver just won at Charlotte and they have a relatively light schedule down the stretch. They are just a couple of games up on Minnesota and in 6th in the West, so every game is important as they try to avoid the play-in tournament. They should be able to waltz into Indiana and get a win, but they could be a little distracted with a big game against the Timberwolves on deck. Nikola Jokic continues to put up great numbers and just posted a triple double against the Hornets. Indiana has nobody to really guard him either.
The Pacers have never been good this season, but they are definitely running on fumes at this point. They have lost 4 in a row and even though they are at home it is hard to see them biting the Nuggets. The only thing the Pacers have going for them is guard Tyrese Haliburton, who has looked great in an expanded role since being traded from Sacramento. He keeps them competitive, sort of, when he is on the floor. There is not much to the rest of the team, though. Denver is a significant favorite in this game on the road. I would normally have looked to the other side but the gap between the haves and have nots really seems to grow after the all-star break. I just can’t find spots where Indiana is going to have any level of sustained success. Haliburton is emerging but he is not a Luka Doncic or Ja Morant-level gamechanger to put the team on his back and get wins. Take Denver.
WAS Wizards -3.0ORL Magic @ WAS Wizards
The Washington Wizards (32-43) will host the Orlando Magic (20-56) following their 107-94 home loss to the Chicago Bulls last night. The 12th-seeded Wizards, who trail the Atlanta Hawks for the final play-in tournament position by 6 games with 7 remaining on their schedule, enter tonight’s contest having lost 7 of their last 10 games. Washington ranks in the bottom-10 teams of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency. With Bradley Beal sidelined for the remainder of the season, and Kyle Kuzma dealing with a knee injury, their struggling offense has had 4 different players lead the team in scoring in their last 4 games.
The visiting Magic are coming off a 107-101 road loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday. The Magic are on a 3-game losing streak and have lost 6 of their last 10. With Johnathan Isaac and Bol Bol sidelined, Wendell Carter Jr. has been able to sprout as a dependable frontcourt option for Orlando and even led the team in points and rebounds in 4 of their last 8 games. However, Carter Jr., who is dealing with a wrist sprain, will be forced to join Bol and Isaac on the sidelines tonight. Orlando ranks dead last in offensive efficiency and in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency. The Wizards are 3-0 against the Magic this season and have won by an average margin of 6.7 points. With an opportunity to sweep the season series and extend their head-to-head win streak to 5 games, take the Wizards to cover tonight’s spread in their 3rd-to-last home game.
CHA Hornets -2.0CHA Hornets @ NY Knicks
The Hornets travel to New York on Wednesday to take on the Knicks, who have won 3 straight games, including a victory in Charlotte last week. The Knicks are playing well for a team that is seemingly out of the playoff race, and they can play spoiler once again against a Hornets team trying to improve their playoff seeding. However, Charlotte has won 7 of its last 9 games and seems to have found its stride at the right time, so look for the more motivated road team to pick up the win in New York.
The Hornets are an extremely talented team, but they have been wildly inconsistent throughout parts of the season and that has held them back from reaching their full potential. In fact, the Hornets are a dangerous offensive team who score the 5th-most points per game, but they combine that elite scoring ability with a horrendous defense that gives up the 4th-most points per game. While they have the playmakers to outscore opponents on a nightly basis and prefer a fast-paced style of play, they often come out flat on the defensive end, which makes it extremely difficult for them to string wins together. Fortunately for the Hornets in tonight’s matchup, they won’t be facing an intimidating offense that can expose their defensive weakness. The Knicks score the 4th-fewest points per game and have steadily declined since the all-star break despite their recent winning streak, so the Hornets should be motivated to grab the win in a crucial game for their playoff seeding.
BOS Celtics -4.0MIA Heat @ BOS Celtics
This will be a massive test for the Miami Heat, who have dropped 4 of their last 5 games, but are coming off a win over the Sacramento Kings. Despite that recent losing run, the Heat have been solid against the spread, covering in 7 of their last 9 games on the road. They could be potentially missing several rotation guys in Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson and Gabe Vincent, which would be a blow. They lost their first 2 meetings of the season against Boston by 17 and 30 points, and that 30-point defeat was in the game played at the TD Garden, so the Heat have a ton of work to do in this one.
Boston is coming off a 3-point OT loss at Toronto. In a game in which they didn’t have Robert Williams III, Al Horford, Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown, the Celtics’ reserves put up a ton of resistance and covered as 3.5-point underdogs. Marcus Smart went off for 28 points to lead the way as all 5 starters scored in double figures, but it wasn’t the most efficient of games as they shot only 41.5% as a team. They get 3 of those 4 players back tonight, though, with Williams the only guy who remains out due t0 a knee injury which will keep him out for a while. It’ll be interesting to see how they play without him as he has been a central figure of their defense for the past several months. Despite his absence I still like the Celtics in this spot. They’ve been dominant on both ends, winning 13 of their last 16 games against Eastern Conference opponents and going 6-1 SU/ATS over their last 7 games. Miami has covered just once in 7 games, and the TD Garden is one of the toughest road games in the NBA this season. Go with Boston in this one.
TOR Raptors -3.0MIN Timberwolves @ TOR Raptors
The Toronto Raptors have worked themselves out of the play-in positions, but they might fall back into them if they lose tonight. They will be keen to stop that from happening at home against a Minnesota Timberwolves team that has struggled on the road this season, with an 18-20 record. The Raptors have the joint-best record in the Eastern Conference over the last 10 games, winning 8. They have a healthy starting 5 heading into the game with Gary Trent Jr. having returned in their last game against the Boston Celtics. Khem Birch is listed as day-to-day, which could shorten their rotation against Karl-Anthony Towns. The Timberwolves could be without Malik Beasley and Jaden McDaniels.
Over the last 10 games the Raptors are 3rd in the league in defensive rating. Their strength on that end of the court is in their wing defenders, who could help neutralize Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell. With Trent Jr. emerging as one of the top perimeter defenders this season, Russell could struggle once more, having recorded just 8 points when the teams last met. While the Raptors will give up a size advantage, they have been good at defending the paint, allowing the 9th-fewest points in that category over the last 10. The hustle of their forwards allows them to front and double in the post, getting the ball away from opposing bigs. The Raptors held the Timberwolves to 91 points in Minnesota and should be equally successful defending tonight. Back them to cover.
OKC Thunder +12.0ATL Hawks @ OKC Thunder
The Atlanta Hawks are back above .500 for the first time since December and are closing in on clinching a playoff spot as they travel to Oklahoma City to face the Thunder. Atlanta has won 7 of its last 10 games while scoring 117 points per game and dropped 132 on the Indiana Pacers on Monday night. The Thunder have won 2 of their last 3 after a 10-game losing streak. There are some injuries of note for both teams. Atlanta lists De’Andre Hunter and Danilo Gallinari as day-to-day, while the Thunder’s leading scorer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed Monday’s game against Portland with an ankle injury.
Atlanta is just 5-10 against the spread over the last 15 games. The Hawks are also terrible against the number on the road this season, with a 12-25 record. The bad trends continue for the Hawks as they are 6-9 ATS as a road favorite and 13-24 after a win. The Thunder are one of the best cover teams in the NBA at 46-25-4 on the season and 19-14-4 ATS at home. Lastly, OKC has covered in 20 of their 31 games as a double-digit underdog. There’s just no way I’m laying this many points with Atlanta on the road, especially with a defense that just gave up 123 points to the Pacers. It feels like a letdown spot as well, after they finally got back above .500. Make sure Gilgeous-Alexander is playing for OKC before placing your bet.
SAC Kings -3.0SAC Kings @ HOU Rockets
The Houston Rockets (20-56) will host the Sacramento Kings (27-49) following their 123-120 home loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Monday. The Rockets, who are tied with the Orlando Magic of the Eastern Conference for the worst record in the league, have lost 7 of their last 10 games. Houston is 1 of just 2 teams that ranks within the bottom 5 teams in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Though rookie big man Alperun Sengun has led the team in both points and rebounds in 2 of their last 4 games, Sengun is listed as questionable for tonight’s game and could possibly join Eric Gordon, Dennis Schroder, and Christian Wood on the sidelines. The visiting Kings are coming off a 123-100 road loss to the Miami Heat on Monday.
Similarly to the Rockets, the Kings have lost 7 of their last 10 games. Despite the fact that the Kings will extend their playoff drought to 16 years, forcing the organization to pull the plug on De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis for the remainder of the year, rookie Davion Mitchell has excelled as the primary ball-handler for Sacramento. Mitchell is averaging 24 ppg, 8.5 apg, and 3.5 rpg in his last 4 games and is the first Kings rookie in the Sacramento era (1985-present) to score 20+ points and dish out 7+ assists in 4 straight games. In spite of Mitchell’s stellar play, Sacramento ranks within the bottom 10 teams in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Kings and Rockets are 1-1 in their season series, and similar to their back-to-back games in Sacramento in January, they will play back-to-back in Houston with the season series finale on Sunday. Look for Mitchell to lead the way again for the Kings starting on the defensive end in his matchup against fellow rookie Jalen Green. Take the Kings to cover tonight’s spread.
SA Spurs +5.5MEM Grizzlies @ SA Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs have won their last 4 games, which has elevated the team into a play-in position above the Los Angeles Lakers. They go into tonight’s game against the Memphis Grizzlies having to win to keep hold of the position. The Grizzlies will be coming into this road game without Ja Morant and potentially Jaren Jackson Jr. too. The forward ended up missing their last game against the Golden State Warriors and with the Grizzlies firmly 2nd in the conference, they may choose not to risk him. The visitors are on a 5-game winning streak themselves but have much less on the line.
Tyus Jones has done a great job for the Grizzlies in the absence of Morant, but he will have a tough matchup. Dejuante Murray has the size and length to be a distributor defensively and could limit the playmaking capabilities of Jones. The Spurs are 8th in defensive rating over the last 5 games and should be able to disturb the Grizzlies offense. While the visitors are 1st in that category over the same stretch, the potential absence of Jackson Jr. could limit their effectiveness. The Spurs playing at home will have a lot more on the line tonight, and I cannot see them rolling over easily against the less motivated visitors.
NO Pelicans -13.5NO Pelicans @ POR Trail Blazers
Playing a team like the Blazers couldn’t have come at a better time for the New Orleans Pelicans, who are looking to solidify themselves at the 9th seed in the West. The surging Spurs, who are a game behind them, are on a 4-game win streak, so continuing to win will be crucial for them to remain in the play-in tournament. They have already beaten the Blazers by 14 points this season and in their last 6 games overall they’ve covered the spread 5 times. They’ve covered in 11 of their last 13 games on the road and they are 6-2 ATS in head-to-head meetings against the Blazers.
Portland doesn’t have much to play for right now. Injuries have completely ruined their season and they are pretty much tanking the rest of the way as the 11th-seeded Lakers are 4 games ahead of them. This team is coming off a 3-point home loss against Oklahoma City, and that’s the closest they’ve been to a win in their last 4 games. The defeats prior to that were by 17, 19 and 37 points against the Rockets (twice) and Spurs. They’ve gone 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games against Western Conference teams and at home they’ve covered just once in 7 games. Anything but a blowout win for the Pelicans would be a big surprise. The average age of the Portland’s starting 5 against the Thunder in their last game was 22.4, and it’s pretty clear that they have dedicated the rest of their season to developing their young players. The Pelicans need the win, so back them to cover with confidence.
PHX Suns -4.5PHX Suns @ GS Warriors
The Golden State Warriors (48-28) will host the Phoenix Suns (61-14) following their 123-95 road loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night. The Warriors enter tonight’s contest on a 3-game losing streak and have now lost 6 of their last 10 games. In Stephen Curry’s (foot) absence, Jordan Poole has now led the team in scoring in 6 of their last 7 games and is averaging 26.9 points, 5.1 assists, and 4.0 rebounds in that stretch. Golden State currently ranks 15th in offensive efficiency and 2nd in defensive efficiency.
The visiting Suns are coming off a 114-104 home win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday. The Suns enter tonight’s contest on an 8-game win streak and have won 9 of their last 10 games. Phoenix is currently the only team in the NBA that ranks within the top-3 teams in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Despite injuries to Frank Kaminsky, JaVale McGee, and Dario Saric, the Suns have been rejuvenated by the return of Chris Paul who has led the team in assists with 13.5 apg since his return. Devin Bookers has led the team in scoring in 8 of their last 10 games and is averaging 30.9 points, 6.5 assists, and 4.2 rebounds in that span. The Warriors are 2-1 against the Suns this season resulting in an even 5-5 record for each team in their last 10 meetings. With Curry sidelined and the Suns rolling through the latter half of the season, look for the Suns to extend their win streak with a cover in tonight’s game.
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NBA Under Over Picks
Under 232.0DEN Nuggets @ IND Pacers
Over 218.5ORL Magic @ WAS Wizards
Over 215.0MIA Heat @ BOS Celtics
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