2-way combination bets, betting tip
When it comes to football betting, I choose a game where I’m pretty sure about the outcome and the odds are still not too bad.
e.g. Bayern Munich – MSV Duisburg, I’m betting on a win by Bayern (odds 1.2)
Then I look for a game from the current betting tips (e.g. auf / wett-tips) that brings good odds but is not overly speculative. e.g. Gladbach – Kaiserslautern Tip: 1, odds 1.85
Then I place a combination bet. I choose the game from the betting tip together with the game I’m sure of.
So my combo tip looks like this:
Bavaria – Duisburg, output: 1, odds 1.2
Gladbach – Kaiserslautern, output: 1, odds 1.85
Together this gives a total rate of 2.22.
Then I secure this tip by placing a second combination bet, this time with a different outcome for the game from the betting tip. I usually choose a tie (X).
Bavaria – Duisburg, output: 1, odds 1.2
Gladbach – Kaiserslautern, exit: X, odds 3.33
This results in an overall quota for the second combination tip of 3,996.
Since this combination bet is only used as a hedge, I only bet so much that I will only achieve a small consolation win when I enter exit X at the game Gladbach – Kaiserslautern. I want to win as much as possible if Gladbach wins!
I then choose the stakes as follows:
First combination bet: stake is e1.
Second combination bet: stake is e2 = e1 / (quote_kombi_2 – 1)
E.g. for e1 = 10 EUR: e2 = 10 EUR / 2,996 = 3.34 EUR.
I round up the stake e2 to EUR 3.40 (to get a consolation gain).
If Gladbach wins, I get 10 EUR * 2.22 = 22.20 EUR (8.80 EUR profit) In the event of a tie I get 3.40 EUR * 3.996 = 13.59 EUR (0.19 EUR consolation profit)
Live betting value bet football
Never let anyone tell you that a tip is 100% safe. Only one thing is certain, whoever claims that is 100% wrong! (except surebets)
I actually only play live bets – because of the often high fluctuations in the odds and thus the possibility of a surebet.
Value bet Here is the formula for calculating a value bet: Value = (odds * probability in%) / 100
If the value reaches a value above 1, it is a value bet.
In value betting, betting is only done on those odds that are considered to be very high based on the probability of the outcome.
Example of any matchday (1st Bundesliga 06/07, 3rd matchday) Hannover 96 – TSV Alemannia Aachen | Odds: 1 (1.85) X (3.60) 2 (4.70)
This is how I saw the game from the perspective of probability: 30% / 30% / 40% -> (4.7 * 40/100) = 1.88 it is a value bet because the value (in this case clearly) is above 1
Tip: A good way to find value bets is as follows: It often helps to compare the odds of different bookmakers for a result. If you find odds at a betting shop that are significantly higher in comparison than with the other providers, in my experience it is more likely that you have found a value bet.
You can compare the odds here!
The difficulty with this strategy is clearly estimating the probability. Therefore, one should analyze a lot and read through statistics. Practice makes perfect, after all. In the example Hannover had lost the first 2 games of the season with a very poor performance, Aachen (promoted) also 2 defeats, but with a strong performance against Bremen and Schalke.
The advantage of live betting is that in the game mentioned above, the odds before kick-off point to Hannover’s victory. Now you can first play your value bet on Aachen. If the outsider takes the lead, as in this case, and continues to watch the game live, nothing can really go wrong. A possible hedge by betting on a tie is possible, but often not necessary.
The game ended 3 to 0 for Aachen – so stake * odds of 4.7 = nice profit
Of course, the odds for the winner calculated according to your own probability are not always that high, but there are often high exceptions.
Estimate and compare probabilities
I have been playing football betting for 9 years. I have tried various strategies I devised myself and have only been betting with one and the same strategy for almost 4 years, as this is the most stable profit for me.
It looks like this: I always do some research in the media before I type a game about:
- injured players
- Status in the table
- the last games
- constant or fluctuating performance of the individual teams
- anything else that might be of interest
So I only rely on teams that I can get enough information about and not on some provincial troops in Latvia or something.
Based on the bullet points listed above, I estimate the probability of winning the teams. It takes a lot of practice.
Then I set up odds for the games myself (according to the probability I have estimated) and compare my odds with the odds of my betting provider on the Internet. And here I bet on the teams that my bookmaker has given higher odds than me.
In between there are phases of loss, but in total I have made a net profit of 1,481 euros over the last 16 months (since 16 months book) with the same stake of 30 euros per game (I only bet single games, no combinations).
If you want to try that too, start testing with little effort, if it works out successfully for about 3 months, then increase the effort a little.
I wish all sports bettors all the best and good luck, and the betting providers a lot of money to pay out …
Late goal betting (76-90 minutes)
- Look for games where a high goal difference or many goals are expected. These are mostly games in which there is a clear favorite with a 3-way win rate below 1.3.
- Place evenly in all selected games (select as many as possible -> risk diversification!) On the additional bet “The last goal will be scored in minutes 76-90”. This bet (average odds = 1.93) is offered for almost all major games.
Result: According to our own statistics, bets are won in 59.26% of all cases. Despite the lost 40.74%, there is still a respectable return of 14.89% (net profit [total profit minus total capital employed] based on the capital employed)! If the stake per bet is then continuously increased due to the growing capital stock, considerable sums of money can be achieved in the long run …
A common reason for the probability of winning of almost 60%: The underdog often gets weaker towards the end and the favorite easily scores another goal in the last 15 minutes. IMPORTANT: Use this strategy only for single bets and never for combinations or system bets – otherwise it is guaranteed to go wrong … Sooo, now everyone should be able to increase their money slowly but surely! I hope I have helped you.
Before kick-off I take a starting capital of 50 EUR and use this according to the odds as the calculator calculates for me.
An example: Bayern – Freiburg – for me Bavaria is the favorite; Now I bet like this: Final score ‘0–0’ odds: 13.5 -> 4.04 EUR stake results in a win of 54.54 EUR Final score ‘1–0’ odds: 7.2 -> 7.57 EUR stake results in Profit 54.50 EUR ‘Two goals or more’ odds: 1.42 -> 38.39 EUR stake results in a profit of 54.51 EUR
With this bet I would only lose (50 EUR) if Freiburg won 1-0 at Bayern.
In any other case, my profit would be 8.28% or, with the EUR 50 stake, around EUR 4.51.
For the next game, I don’t use the 50 EUR, but instead enter 54.51 EUR as the stake in the calculator and so on. So I’ll use the profit from the previous one in the next game.
If I get away with it 15 times in a row, I’ll pay off the winnings and start over. If you know something, that’s easily possible. You should only take games where the home team is a big favorite.
You also need luck, of course, but keep in mind that the money would only be gone in the event of a (very unlikely) 0–1 defeat at home. Other betting strategies is here