Winning strategies in basketball betting
Basketball is one of the top 10 most popular sports disciplines in the world. 825 million fans watch their favorite teams ‘ games every year. Many of them charge for bets and win. But at a long distance predictably go into negative territory. How to learn how to control the bank, play strategy and not give in to emotions, today we will tell you in this article. We have collected tips for betting on basketball from betting experts and share them below.
Basketball rules that are important for successful betting
There are two versions of the basketball rules: FIBA and NBA. Basic general rules:
- Games are played by two teams. Five people on the floor at the base, plus substitute players. The number of substitutions during the match is unlimited;
- The match consists of four quarters and overtime (s), if a draw is recorded at the end of regular time.;
- Teams score points in different ways: three points for a long-range shot, two points for a two-point shot, and one point for accurate free throws.
There is a significant difference between the rules in time – in the NBA they play quarters of 12 minutes, and according to FIBA rules – 10. In America, the three-point arc is located further away than in Europe. In the NBA, penalties are awarded after any defensive violation, when the team has scored 6 fouls, and according to FIBA rules – 5.
Top key nuances of the betting strategy
In the regular season of the NBA, each team plays 82 games. In Europe, the frequency of games is at the same level, taking into account national leagues and international cups. Many games allow you to collect up-to-date statistics on an upcoming event.
Important factors for analysis:
- Place in the tournament table. It is determined based on the ratio of the number of wins to losses. The higher the team, the stronger it is.
- Results of personal confrontations. If you look at the latest meetings between teams and compare the results, you can understand what teams are approximately capable of in a face-to-face battle.
- Results of the last 5-10 matches with other teams. Provides insight into the form of commands.
- Percentage of wins / losses on your own / guest site. It is used to analyze the chances of teams playing at home or away.
- Tournament motivation (chances of reaching the playoffs, possible “drain” of the game for high chances in the draft).
- Problems with the roster (disqualifications, injuries).
- Team fatigue (load during the last period).
- Unsportsmanlike component (deterioration/improvement of franchise funding, rotation in the club’s management).
- Individual goals of the leading players (contract year, race for personal prizes, feud with specific opponents).
- Coaching “game books”.
Depending on the significance of the upcoming event, bookmakers offer a wide range of paintings and not so much, but you will definitely find the following bets in them :
- on the outcome of the match (P1, P2);
- to the total amount (TM, TB);
- on individual team totals (ITB1, ITM2)
- on handicaps (F1, 2).
In the lines of the NBA, Euroleague and other big leagues, BC open markets for half the game and each quarter separately.important! Bookmakers offer a wide range of bets. Both in pre-match and online. But it is basketball-live, according to experts, that is more profitable.
Basketball betting strategy “Win-win Totals”
To properly understand the strategy of betting on basketball using totals, it is necessary first of all to evaluate not the coefficients, but the value of the total itself. Look for data on events with quotes in the range of 1.8-1.9. They will allow you to use a catch-up strategy when you bet on the same (or with a minimal difference) totals an amount two to two and a half times more than you lost before. Bookmakers limit the player’s bankroll to maximum bets. Therefore, such a strategy is only conditionally win-win for basketball on the total dogon.
How the Dogon Live strategy works in practice
To fully understand the strategy of playing catch-up on live basketball, experts offer the following formula for calculating the next bet::
C = (N+B)/(K-1)
Where C is the desired bet, N is the total amount lost, B is the planned win, and K is the coefficient.
Before starting the game, you should determine your bankroll. So that it is enough for 7-8 steps.
How to reduce the number of catch-up levels
Analyze face-to-face meetings and identify trends. For example, if in the last 10 matches the second quarter ended 8 times in favor of the first team, feel free to bet on the same quarter in the upcoming match.
Even / odd in quarters-a strategy for basketball lovers
No serious analytics are required for such bids. You can test catch-up on it, but otherwise there is no benefit. You won’t be able to beat the bookmaker on his site. It is necessary to apply knowledge based on statistics in order to succeed in the sweepstakes. Otherwise, the company will withdraw its margin, which is included in the coefficients, as the casino does when a “zero” appears. One of the options is to watch any match in live mode according to FIBA rules, wait for the 8th minute in the quarter and, if the total is currently even, put it on even according to its results. At the same time, teams must play a neat two-point basketball, then in two minutes they will score, taking into account the six predicted attacks, 12 points.
Total more, total less bets based on statistics
Based on exact numbers, most strategies using totals work well. There are plenty of resources dedicated to studying basketball statistics. When forecasting totals, take into account the factors described in the section “Important nuances of the betting strategy”. All of them affect the total, but here we will consider specific ones.
- Average number of points. It is determined by dividing the sum of all points scored in a season by the total number of matches played.
- Points for possession. For example, if a hundred possessions have a hundred points, then one possession counts for one point. Depending on the opponent’s philosophy (they spend all 24 seconds attacking or limit themselves to a minimum of 8 seconds), you can predict how many possessions each team will have. After that, multiply by the average number of points per possession and get the desired value.
- Forecast of your opponents ‘ choice of tactics. It is important to study the relationship between teams, as they can choose a defensive or offensive model of play specifically for the opponent.
How to place bets using the “Humpty Dumpty”system
According to the catch-up principle, bet on the expected outcome in the quarter. P1 didn’t happen in the first one – put it on P1 in the second one, and so on. But bet if there are several prerequisites for this:
- in the last five meetings, there has never been a situation where only one team wins in each quarter;
- the head start on the favorite is around 5.5 or 6 and a half, no more.
- the underdog should not have a heavy schedule (away series, one after another, and soon).
Bet on an outsider winning in the quarter
Even in games with a clear favorite, when the odds on winning are small (1.1-1.2), the outsider is able to pull out one, and sometimes two quarters. If you have enough patience, apply this knowledge. At the same time, it is not necessary to use catch-up, since high quotes are given for the underdog to win in the quarter.
Strategy for individual total in basketball
According to analysts, it is good to bet on the average total of a certain team ± 4 points, depending on its form and the strength of the opponent.
Bets on the outcome with a handicap
You should not bet on small handicaps in the region of ± three and a half points (on equal terms), this is very risky. Such bets make sense if you are confident that the favorite will win and want to increase the odds. Or you think that the bookmaker made an incorrect quote value.
Professionals recommend to choose handicaps from -8.5 when playing the favorite, practicing three-point basketball.
“Corridor” in basketball
The essence of the strategy: two bets are placed – either on the total (one on TB, the other on TM), or on the handicap (with a plus and a minus). So a corridor of several points is formed, which will suit the player. It is better to choose such corridors after analyzing the lines of several offices. The difference in totals and odds between them can reach up to five points for the same outcome with equal quotes. This happens infrequently, so do not miss your chance to get, in fact, free money without risk.
Place bets on corridors in live matches – when you first choose a certain TM with a coefficient higher than 2.0, and, provided that the teams dry the match, later move it to TB of the same value. This creates a win-win situation.
Bid basics for the B1 strategy
We fix the total for the quarter before the match. If you score too many points in the first quarter, we expect a shortfall in the next quarters and bet less on the total in the second, third and / or fourth quarters. If you are looking for TM, make sure that teams do not get” fouled ” when penalties are thrown for any violation of the rules, except for fouls in attack.
Shchukin’s basketball Strategy
Shchukin’s strategy comprehensively combines pre-match statistical calculations based on the latest results, and allows you to identify inadequate coefficients in the lines.
- We determine the average performance of clubs over the last five matches. +3 points for the site owner. For each victory in these matches, we add one more point and take one and a half points for each loss. Adding both results together.
- We find the average total of the last five full-time confrontations.
- Let’s summarize the first and second points. Divide it by two and get the estimated total of the game.
- We compare the bookmaker’s total (with a coefficient of 1.85-9) with the calculated total. If the resulting total is greater than in the line, we put it on more, if vice versa-on less.
Which leagues are most often chosen by bettors to bet on basketball
When betting on sports, the NBA and Euroleague basketball teams recommend betting all cappers. It is risky to bet on youth tournaments and games of farm clubs, where match-fixing is possible. But young people are unstable, and it is extremely problematic to identify objective patterns in their statistics.